The 2024 Political Safari House Forecast

All right, here we go. The final Political Safari House of Representatives forecast is finally here. According to our expanded model, we give the Democrats a 69.9% chance of winning the chamber, winning an average of 221 seats in our simulations. This would be a gain of 12 seats for the Democrats and a loss of 6 seats for the Republicans. Redistricting could play a crucial part in determining who wins the chamber. Democrats will likely gain a seat in both Alabama and Louisiana, while Republicans will probably pick up three as a result of partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina.

Likely Dem	Lean Dem	Tossup	Lean GOP	Likely GOP
California 47th Colorado 8th Connecticut 5th Maine 2nd Maryland 6th Michigan 8th New Mexico 2nd New York 4th (Flip) North Carolina 1st Ohio 9th Ohio 13th Pennsylvania 7th Pennsylvania 8th Virginia 7th	Alaska AL California 13th (Flip) California 22nd (Flip) Michigan 7th Nebraska 2nd (Flip) New York 22nd (Flip) Washington 3rd	Tilt Dem: California 27th New York 19th Oregon 5th Tilt GOP: Arizona 1st California 45th New York 17th	Arizona 6th California 41st Colorado 3rd Iowa 1st Iowa 3rd Michigan 10th New Jersey 7th North Carolina 14th (Flip) Pennsylvania 10th Virginia 2nd	Arizona 2nd California 3rd Florida 13th Montana 1st New York 1st North Carolina 13th (Flip) Pennsylvania 1st Texas 15th Wisconsin 1st Wisconsin 3rd

Other flips: Alabama 2nd (Very Likely D), Louisiana 6th (Solid D), North Carolina 6th (Uncontested R)

This year, the House comes down to a few crucial districts in California and New York. In California’s San Joaquin Valley, we predict that the 13th and 22nd will flip. Both districts were won by Biden by over 10 points, and polling suggests that Democrats have a slight advantage. The Democrats could also flip a few other districts in the state. The one to watch is California 45th; this district includes a significant amount of Orange County and is represented by incumbent representative Michelle Steel (R). While she has successfully won two tight elections, a recent poll has her down by two points and right now, our numbers show that she has a 54.3% chance of victory.

New York has six competitive seats this cycle, two being tossups. Right now, we are predicting that Democrats will flip the 4th and 22nd. In the former district, scandal-ridden incumbent Anthony D’Esposito (R) trailed by double digits in a recent Siena College poll, our forecast shows that he has only a 24.9% chance of retaining his seat. Two more possible flips lie in the Hudson Valley, with the 17th and 19th also incredibly competitive. We give Republicans a 51.6% chance of winning the 17th, while we favor Democrats in the 19th, with a 53.2% chance of victory.

We’ve talked about possible Democrat flips, but is there anywhere that Republicans can make gains? Other than the gerrymandered North Carolina seats, there aren’t many great chances for the GOP. Their best shot is Michigan’s 7th district, an open seat currently occupied by Elissa Slotkin (D), who’s currently running for the state’s open senate seat. State senator Tom Barrett (R) is running for the seat again and a recent poll from Emerson College has him up by three points. We still only give him a win probability of 38.1%, but watch out for this seat as a potential flip.

Update: An edit was made in the table above to correct a mistake in the initial article where Washington's 3rd district was listed as a flip. That has been corrected.

If you want more detailed info about the presidential election, here is a spreadsheet with the full results of the forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KVGk141my3DdsPfk4b42LmhXqr4o9BkLyx56wS5D7wk/edit?usp=sharing