North Carolina: The One Swing State That Might Trend Towards Democrats

As Democrats see close margins across all swing states and many states threaten to flip from President Biden wins in 2020 to President Trump wins in 2024, one swing state is bucking the trend: the Tarheel State, North Carolina. 

Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.35%, and Democrats have not won the state since President Obama won it in 2008. Yet, two factors should give Democrats hope. The effects of Hurricane Helene and poor down-ballot candidate quality could lead to Republicans having more difficulties than anticipated in North Carolina. 

Hurricane Helene had disastrous effects in North Carolina. Natural disasters can have a significant effect on elections. Take it from someone who lived on Long Island during Hurricane Sandy: natural disasters significantly change public opinion. They produce uncertainty in polls and may affect people’s ability to vote. But most importantly, and what could help Democrats, is that an excellent response to a natural disaster can increase the incumbency advantage. This happened in 2012 when Obama’s strong response led to his sweeping downstate New York with historic margins. Since Democrats control the Presidency and the Governorship of North Carolina, a strong response will help Democrats. It is yet to be seen if the response is well received in much of North Carolina and the effect that the Hurricane will have on people’s voting behaviors. But this produces uncertainty, which could lead to Democrats mounting an upset.

Republicans have also nominated poor candidates for statewide office down-ballot. Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has faced controversy after controversy and is widely unpopular. He is down significantly in polls to Josh Stein. Furthermore, North Carolina State Superintendent Michele Morrow has received national attention for her extreme social media posts. Obama even criticized her as Democrats made their closing arguments in North Carolina. There have not been many polls conducted of this race. But her extreme behavior could be assumed to be unpopular. I expect Robinson and Morrow to lose their statewide races, but their controversial behavior could drag down Republicans in other races, even Trump. Similar to how Governor Kathy Hochul cost Democrats’ House bid by being unpopular, down-ballot Republicans in North Carolina may have an effect that poisons the chances of further down-ballot Republicans or the top of the ticket.